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Quand les déchets deviennent une opportunité
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Expertises
24 septembre 2024
Les Hybrides Boostent les Métaux du Groupe Du Platine
As hybrid vehicles often combine gasoline engines with electric powertrains, the demand for PGMs (Platinum Group Metals) is expected to rise significantly with car manufacturers now reviewing their EV (Electric Vehicles) line-up, some of whom had already announced a full EV portfolio for the coming years and now decided to delay that strategy. "We will not launch a second-gen product unless it's profitable within the first year and we are going to get a return on that capital we're investing", Ford’s CFO John Lawler said. The company announced plans in April for an electric truck in 2026 and a three-row SUV in 2027, delayed from 2025.
A recent consumer study conducted by McKinsey found that 46% of US EV owners surveyed were likely to switch back to a gas-powered vehicle, compared to a global average of 29% of EV owners who said they would likely switch back to an internal-combustion engine. In fact, the EV market is growing at a much slower pace than initially anticipated. On a worldwide basis, plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) sales rose 43% last year, according to BloombergNEF data, surpassing the 28% increase in battery-electric sales.
The shift towards stricter emissions regulations worldwide is pushing automakers to produce cleaner vehicles, further increasing the reliance on these metals. Hybrid vehicles are a critical step in this transition, ensuring a sustained demand for PGMs. In this context, Palladium and Platinum are key materials in the automotive industry, particularly in the production of catalytic converters, which are essential for reducing harmful emissions from internal combustion engines (palladium is primarily used in gasoline engines, while platinum is favoured in diesel engines).
Additionally, these metals are also used in jewellery as well as for a range of other industrial purposes, such as chemical, electrical, petroleum, glass, including liquid crystal displays and storage density on hard disks for computers and servers.
Another element that can contribute to the rise of PGMs prices is the highly concentrated geographical mining locations: South Africa is responsible for most of the platinum supply globally and Russia is the leading producer of Palladium.
However, unlike gold and silver, it is expected that high maintenance costs, labour disputes, logistic bottlenecks, political sanctions and other economic risks can play a part in impacting the price.
Key factors to take into consideration:
- Many of the subsidies or incentive policies for the EV industry can be revisited or even removed, which can impact positively the hybrid vehicles industry.
- Bet that combustion cars won’t disappear anytime soon; hybrid vehicles will gain market share.
- Car rental companies have been heavily hit by high maintenance costs and low resale value of EVs.
- Scarcity/limited supply of these metals.
- The increased demand for Gold helps mining PGMs as these can be found together.
- The US Department of Energy (DoE) has included PGMs in the list of critical minerals (Uranium price rallied as it was in that list when Congress approved sanctions).
More details are available in the full Trade Idea
Protected Outperformance | Product Snapshot
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Expertises
24 septembre 2024
Les Hybrides Boostent les Métaux du Groupe Du Platine
As hybrid vehicles often combine gasoline engines with electric powertrains, the demand for PGMs (Platinum Group Metals) is expected to rise significantly with car manufacturers now reviewing their EV (Electric Vehicles) line-up, some of whom had already announced a full EV portfolio for the coming years and now decided to delay that strategy. "We will not launch a second-gen product unless it's profitable within the first year and we are going to get a return on that capital we're investing", Ford’s CFO John Lawler said. The company announced plans in April for an electric truck in 2026 and a three-row SUV in 2027, delayed from 2025.
A recent consumer study conducted by McKinsey found that 46% of US EV owners surveyed were likely to switch back to a gas-powered vehicle, compared to a global average of 29% of EV owners who said they would likely switch back to an internal-combustion engine. In fact, the EV market is growing at a much slower pace than initially anticipated. On a worldwide basis, plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) sales rose 43% last year, according to BloombergNEF data, surpassing the 28% increase in battery-electric sales.
The shift towards stricter emissions regulations worldwide is pushing automakers to produce cleaner vehicles, further increasing the reliance on these metals. Hybrid vehicles are a critical step in this transition, ensuring a sustained demand for PGMs. In this context, Palladium and Platinum are key materials in the automotive industry, particularly in the production of catalytic converters, which are essential for reducing harmful emissions from internal combustion engines (palladium is primarily used in gasoline engines, while platinum is favoured in diesel engines).
Additionally, these metals are also used in jewellery as well as for a range of other industrial purposes, such as chemical, electrical, petroleum, glass, including liquid crystal displays and storage density on hard disks for computers and servers.
Another element that can contribute to the rise of PGMs prices is the highly concentrated geographical mining locations: South Africa is responsible for most of the platinum supply globally and Russia is the leading producer of Palladium.
However, unlike gold and silver, it is expected that high maintenance costs, labour disputes, logistic bottlenecks, political sanctions and other economic risks can play a part in impacting the price.
Key factors to take into consideration:
- Many of the subsidies or incentive policies for the EV industry can be revisited or even removed, which can impact positively the hybrid vehicles industry.
- Bet that combustion cars won’t disappear anytime soon; hybrid vehicles will gain market share.
- Car rental companies have been heavily hit by high maintenance costs and low resale value of EVs.
- Scarcity/limited supply of these metals.
- The increased demand for Gold helps mining PGMs as these can be found together.
- The US Department of Energy (DoE) has included PGMs in the list of critical minerals (Uranium price rallied as it was in that list when Congress approved sanctions).
More details are available in the full Trade Idea
Protected Outperformance | Product Snapshot
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.